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2015-06-22
www.stormsecuritymag.com

Fewer Hurricanes Likely, Higher Probability of Landfall States CCU Forecast Update

         The latest forecast by the HUGO Hurricane Landfall Outlook Program at Coastal Carolina University (CCU), Conway, SC, lowers the probability of an Atlantic hurricane in 2015 than indicated in its April forecast, but increases the probability of a hurricane making landfall.

         Released June 22, 2015, the updated forecast calls for three named hurricanes this season with one major hurricane. In April the programís forecast called for four hurricanes with two reaching Category 3 or higher.

         The June outlook, however, increases the statistical probability of a landfall along the East Coast from 0.14 to 0.31 and on the Gulf Coast from 0.10 to 0.38.

         The most likely scenario, according to the CCU forecast, is that no hurricanes will make landfall on either the U.S. East Coast or the U.S. Gulf Coast during the 2015 hurricane season; the second most likely scenario is that one hurricane will make landfall on either the East Coast or the Gulf Coast; and the third most likely possibility is that one hurricane each will make landfall on the East Coast and the Gulf Coast.

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