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2015-05-31
www.stormsecuritymag.com

NOAA: Below-Normal Hurricane Season Likely

         A below-normal 2015 Atlantic hurricane season is expected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, but that doesn’t mean coastal areas will have it easy.

         NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of six to 11 named storms this season, of which three to six could become hurricanes.

         “A below-normal season doesn’t mean we’re off the hook. As we’ve seen before, below-normal seasons can still produce catastrophic impacts to communities,” said NOAA Administrator Kathryn Sullivan. Sullivan refers to the 1992 season during which only seven named storms formed, yet the first was Andrew, a Category 5 major hurricane that devastated South Florida.

         “The main factor expected to suppress the hurricane season this year is El Niño, which is already affecting wind and pressure patterns, and is forecast to last through the hurricane season,” said Gerry Bell, the Climate Prediction Center’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster. “El Niño may also intensify as the season progresses, and is expected to have its greatest influence during the peak months of the season,” he added.

 

NOAA’s 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

Named Storms 6 to 11

Hurricanes 3 to 6

Major Hurricanes 0 to 2

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