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2016-04-17
www.stormsecuritymag.com

CSU: Average Hurricane Season Ahead Means More Storms

         “Approximately average activity” is expected for the 2016 Atlantic Basin hurricane season by the Colorado State University (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project in its first forecast of the season released Thursday, April 14. That means 13 named storms, six hurricanes (including Hurricane Alex, which formed in January), of which two will be major storms of Category 3, 4 or 5 intensity).

         A near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the U.S. coastline and in the Caribbean is forecast. The probabilities for at least one major hurricane landfall are:

  • 50 percent for the entire U.S. coastline

     

  • 30 percent for the East Coast including the Florida peninsula

     

  • 29 percent for the Gulf Coast from the Florida peninsula to Brownsville, TX
  •  

             The weakening El Niño is likely to transition either to neutral or La Niña condition by the peak of the 2016 Atlantic season, the forecast states. That means wind shear enhancing conditions are likely to dissipate over the next several months. Wind shear has a dampening effect on hurricane development.

             The 2015 hurricane season saw 11 named storms and four hurricanes.

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